Successful farming strategies in low rainfall areas

27 February, 2009 

Despite tough times the future is looking brighter for upper Eyre Peninsula producers, based on a study of successful low rainfall farming businesses.

The landmark analysis funded by the Australian Government and the South Australian Research and Development Institute  (SARDI) clearly illustrates that despite the recent challenging seasons, there are a number of farming businesses in the region that have remained strong and healthy, and that are likely to keep doing so in the coming decades. 

The report shows these businesses have successfully weathered conditions over the past five years that have been considerably worse than the most likely climate change scenarios forecast for the next 20 years.

The report indicates that farmers who are prepared to take on adaptive approaches to their businesses are likely to survive and prosper. Depending on costs and prices, many of these businesses are likely to thrive under the most likely climate scenarios to 2030. It also emphasises that increased investment in low rainfall agricultural research, development and extension is still a solid investment for a future under climate change.

The Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Research Foundation (EPARF), SARDI’s Minnipa Agricultural Centre and SARDI’s Climate Applications Unit collaborated with a small group of farming systems consultants to assess how the recent tough weather conditions compared to the various climate change scenarios for 2030 in the lower rainfall areas of Eyre Peninsula and the upper North of SA.

The group focussed on 11 robust farming businesses located across the upper Eyre Peninsula which have remained viable despite the run of poor seasons.

SARDI low rainfall scientist Dr. Nigel Wilhelm, says he now has increased confidence for the future of low rainfall agriculture.

“I believe these low rainfall businesses and communities have much to offer in an agricultural landscape that will be influenced by climate change in the future,” he says.

“The project case studies captured the key features shared by the strongest Eyre Peninsula farming businesses, providing pointers on what could be done to thrive into the future.

“We looked at the strengths and vulnerabilities of these businesses and their future management strategies and found that they each shared common business management features and personal characteristics that should be achievable for many businesses,” he says.

• They aimed to improve their business but in a measured and conservative way. An important business goal was to achieve high equity and to recover that high equity after major expansions or investments.
• They were often not the earliest adopters of new technology. When they did adopt, they did it well and consolidated before moving on to the next thing.
• They were keen to learn (often not formally educated), were organised and allocated time to planning, reviewing and leisure.
• They recognised they were not experts in every aspect of their business and consulted with others for these skills.

The project found that further research on potential climate change impacts on farming in these areas should build upon the known strengths of successful businesses by assisting farmers with:

• An improved ability to identify and analyse potential enterprise costs, benefits and risks.

• The flexibility to change the system in response to market and season to develop lower risk, more responsive farming systems – including a range of crop types, enterprise mixes, input types and levels.

• The need to maintain networks and relevant information flow to provide short term support, community confidence and balance to sensational climate change headlines.

Project participant, Andrew Polkinghorne, a consultant and farmer from Lock, says he now accepts that climate change is real, but he believes farmers can adapt. “The information we have shows that we have weathered rainfalls 20% below normal over the last 5 years and the expected drop under climate change for 2030 is 5%, which gives reason to expect that we will be able to adapt to climate change readily,” he says.

Bruce Heddle, farmer at Minnipa and ex-EPARF representative, says he too now feels more optimistic for the future.

“The SARDI Climate Applications Unit message about the sheer severity of the last few years and how only the most negative models predict a future in 2030 as severe as the last few seasons, gives me more optimism now,” he says. “I now doubt whether the things that favour success for farm businesses are any different to any other business or pursuit, and I do think they can be taught and learned,” he adds.

“Further, we still need to find farming systems that reduce the gross greenhouse gas emissions from our activities. In a world challenged for food supply and security, I doubt the logic of converting grain to meat, so pastures will be of importance for a wide range of reasons.”

SARDI Climate Applications Principal Scientist, Dr Peter Hayman says the future will be challenging, and that it is important to acknowledge that there is a level of future climate change that will be almost impossible to adapt to – whether in Adelaide or Minnipa.

“At this point, the best science suggests that with ‘business as usual emissions’ we are heading there in the last half of this century,” says Dr Hayman. “However the climate change projections for the coming three decades suggest up to 1.5 degrees warming, and a most likely rainfall decline of 5 to 10%. That would mean more poor years and fewer really good years. This will be challenging, but there are smart farmers and consultants thinking about how to manage these low rainfall systems. Reducing emissions will not only reduce the chance of run-away climate change, it gives farmers more time to prepare and adapt.”  

The report ‘Exploring adaptive responses in dryland cropping systems to increase robustness to climate change’, is available through Nigel Wilhelm or can be viewed at www.sardi.sa.gov.au/climate/publications

Interviews: SARDI Senior Research Officer Nigel Wilhelm  8303 9353 or 0407 185501; SARDI Climate Applications Science Program leader Dr Peter Hayman (08) 8303 9729 or 0401 996448; Bruce Heddle 0429 804 042  or SARDI Communications (08) 8303 9433.

Footnote: Climate change projections from Suppiah (2006), Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO (2007) indicate high confidence that Eyre Peninsula will be 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030 and that while there is less confidence in rainfall projections, the most likely annual rainfall decline by 2030 is about 5%, with a one in 10 chance that it will be 10% drier. For most locations assessed in this project, the mean of the last five years is about 20% below the mean of the 1980 to 1999 period. Although five years is a short period it was considered a guide for evaluating farming systems.